There seems to be a lot of sudden interest in limiting families to one child in order to ward off impending population disaster. There seems to be several ethical/ social / economic /scientific and historical problems with this solution.
1. Enforcement - how do you police such a scheme? Is it "encouraged" through the tax system? Or is a permit or licensing scheme envisaged. It seems likely that the strongest sanctions will be applied to those on benefits or dependent on state subsidies.
2. Socially this will be divisive and will lead to unintended consequences such as a rapid reduction in the proportion of young people in this country at a time when more are needed. China's version of this solution has resulted in a very skewed male : female ratio. While this is a cultural phenomenon it is possible that similar social effects will be seen.
3. The balance between working and non-working people will tilt even further towards the non-working as the older generations live longer but fewer new workers are born. Ultimately this will make everyone poorer or create a strong demand for increased immigration - not necessarily a bad thing. But over time growing populations have helped fuel economic growth and suddenly reversing this will have an impact on global prosperity.
4. One benefit of population growth is the challenge it provides to science to feed, clothe, employ and house the growing population. This challenge begets creativity When Malthus wrote at the beginning of the nineteenth century he could not have anticipated the advances seen in the last two hundred years - nor that the population we now have which is many times that of Malthus' day.
Monday 16 August 2010
Wednesday 11 August 2010
Economy
I was struck by the Financial Times article by Alan Beattie about promoting exports. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b8b272e-a4b4-11df-8c9f-00144feabdc0.html.
Of course when government spending is coming down, consumer spending on the slide and private sector investment slow to materialise what is left but exporting our way out of recession. This becomes more difficult though if other countries adopt a similar approach. The old assumption is that trade is not a zero sum game and that more trade benefits everyone. There is a certain truth to this but in the cold hard world of assessing GDP, trade deficits are universally bad and if some countries have a large surplus it follows that others are in deficit.
What answers are there to solve this conundrum? A weak currency makes imports expensive and makes our products more competitive but at the expense of inflation. Holding this together is going to be tricky but I see no alternative but a slightly weakened currency which erodes the overwhelming national and personal debt in the UK and continues to prop up exports. However the inflationary pressures may be impossible to manage fuel, food and other vital elements need to be imported which will add to all this.
It is no surprise that faced with such difficult economic choices a coalition was the natural choice. In 1931 the near collapse of the economy and a tough choice between higher tariffs and lower benefits resulted in the collapse of a Labour government and the establishment of the last coalition to govern the United Kingdom. This coalition, the National Government of 1931-45, was not, as was widely discussed following the election, a product of World War but was instead the reaction to a period of extreme economic danger.
Of course when government spending is coming down, consumer spending on the slide and private sector investment slow to materialise what is left but exporting our way out of recession. This becomes more difficult though if other countries adopt a similar approach. The old assumption is that trade is not a zero sum game and that more trade benefits everyone. There is a certain truth to this but in the cold hard world of assessing GDP, trade deficits are universally bad and if some countries have a large surplus it follows that others are in deficit.
What answers are there to solve this conundrum? A weak currency makes imports expensive and makes our products more competitive but at the expense of inflation. Holding this together is going to be tricky but I see no alternative but a slightly weakened currency which erodes the overwhelming national and personal debt in the UK and continues to prop up exports. However the inflationary pressures may be impossible to manage fuel, food and other vital elements need to be imported which will add to all this.
It is no surprise that faced with such difficult economic choices a coalition was the natural choice. In 1931 the near collapse of the economy and a tough choice between higher tariffs and lower benefits resulted in the collapse of a Labour government and the establishment of the last coalition to govern the United Kingdom. This coalition, the National Government of 1931-45, was not, as was widely discussed following the election, a product of World War but was instead the reaction to a period of extreme economic danger.
Tuesday 10 August 2010
Normans
Lots of interesting references to the Normans on television in the UK right now. Robert Bartlett's book in the New Oxford History of England Series, England under the Norman and Angevin Kings has some of the best chapters written on issues such as belief and culture that I have read in any volume. It starts in 1075 and continues until the death of King John in 1216.
An interesting section suggests that even in the 12th century that Englishmen had a reputation for binge drinking. One tale tells of how King Henry II and an Abbot engage in a drinking competition (p578).
So no change there then.
An interesting section suggests that even in the 12th century that Englishmen had a reputation for binge drinking. One tale tells of how King Henry II and an Abbot engage in a drinking competition (p578).
So no change there then.
Today in History
It is August, in the middle of the "dog days" one might say, usually a time of quiet and reflection before schools and businesses return in September and life begins again. It is probably not a bad day to start a blog which comments on issues associated with historical events that affect our modern lives.
There are no "dog days" though as priorities continue to be a priority and the news is filled with flooding and heatwaves and doom about the future of house prices and the economy threatened with "double dip". This is not a "political" blog but lessons from our past can shed illumination on situations of today. Take the case of the mighty warship "Vasa". Built in Sweden in the 1620s during the reign of King Gustavus Adolphus this warship foundered on its maiden voyage on this day in 1628. Gustavus had yet to make his decisive intervention in Germany in the Thirty Years War and wanted to see his new flagship readied for sea for service with the Swedish Baltic Fleet. The poor construction, lack of ballast and the speed with which it was completed doomed the vessel as soon as more than a breath of wind was felt. Many of its crew of over 400 were lost too.
So will the "Swedish model" hold water? The first free school experiments were in the nineteenth century and I found the story of the Peckham experiment very moving. This shows how parents chose for themselves an education for their child just after the second world war - an important lesson for current policymakers.
http://www.thephf.org/school.html
There are no "dog days" though as priorities continue to be a priority and the news is filled with flooding and heatwaves and doom about the future of house prices and the economy threatened with "double dip". This is not a "political" blog but lessons from our past can shed illumination on situations of today. Take the case of the mighty warship "Vasa". Built in Sweden in the 1620s during the reign of King Gustavus Adolphus this warship foundered on its maiden voyage on this day in 1628. Gustavus had yet to make his decisive intervention in Germany in the Thirty Years War and wanted to see his new flagship readied for sea for service with the Swedish Baltic Fleet. The poor construction, lack of ballast and the speed with which it was completed doomed the vessel as soon as more than a breath of wind was felt. Many of its crew of over 400 were lost too.
So will the "Swedish model" hold water? The first free school experiments were in the nineteenth century and I found the story of the Peckham experiment very moving. This shows how parents chose for themselves an education for their child just after the second world war - an important lesson for current policymakers.
http://www.thephf.org/school.html
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